By: Analytical writing August 31st 2022
The Slpp strongholds of South east and the Apc semi strongholds of North west are going to see an equilibrium interms of registration figures. That means, almost equal strength in registration numbers.Maybe the North West including Freetown, will be slightly ahead with a few percentages. What does this equilibrium mean?It means Apc has lost the elections. E lek North West register to maximum, it is still not a guarantee that Apc will win.
This pattern of registration and voting was what exactly played out in 2018.
The problem here for Apc is they have failed in the area of national reach. They have little or no presence in two regions. While the Slpp has voting strength everywhere.
Let give a hypothetical 2023 voting result and you do the math.We do 4 districts.
Kailahun(Slpp 90% ,Apc 10%)
Pujehun(Slpp 90% ,Apc 10%)
Koinadugu(Apc 63% Slpp 37%)
Kambia(Apc 67% ,Slpp 33%)
This is the exact pattern the 2023 election is going to follow. You will realize that eventhough Apc won Kambia and koinadugu, and Slpp Kailahun and pujehun, the mathematical differentials will not allow Apc to win the election once you start result reconciliation among the 4 districts.
Apc has not done what they are supposed to do inorder to defeat Slpp.Apc has a strategic planning problem which is, they believe Freetown alone will catapult them to victory. That is a disastrous strategy.
The problem will start for Apc when you see the registration differential between South east combined on one hand, and the entire North on the other hand.You will find out that South east combined will be almost 400 thousand more that the North which immediately signals a deficit for Apc.The only place where they will be able to overcome that deficit, is Freetown- Apc will have to win 95% of Freetown inorder to cover that deficit.
A 35% Slpp victory in Freetown, is an automatic general election defeat for Apc.
Until and unless Apc makes extra strides towards national reach,they will continue losing general elections.
Analytical writing August 31st 2022
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