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Big Fish incident, a lesson for Sierra Leoneans

Big Fish incident, a lesson for Sierra Leoneans By: Kembay Those always clamouring for War after seen yesterday random shooting on Charlotte and Lightfoot Boston Streets in Freetown by a desperado should now know such is just a tip of an ice bag in a warfare.  Big Fish after forcefully snatching, the riffle from the female police officer didn't go on looking out for APC or SLPP but was determine to shoot at anyone who dare stand his way irrespective of your political loyalty, Religious trait, tribal or Regional connection.  The few minutes he spent with the gun while moving up an down, saw almost all the streets in CBD deserted with everyone indoor except the security forces who were positioning themselves at intersections point to end the menace.  What caused the desertion and the indoor staying was that everyone knew that either by mistake or intention coming in contact with Big Fish at that moment, would have been your end. That is
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SLPP gets a landslide victory in 2023 elections. How?


By: Analytical writing August 31st 2022

The Slpp strongholds of South east and the Apc semi strongholds of North west are going to see an equilibrium interms of registration figures. That means, almost equal strength in registration numbers.Maybe the North West including Freetown, will be slightly ahead with a few percentages. What does this equilibrium mean?It means Apc has lost the elections. E lek North West  register to maximum, it is still not a guarantee that Apc will win.
This pattern of registration and voting was what exactly  played out in 2018.
The problem here for Apc is they have failed in the area of national reach. They have little or no presence in two regions. While the Slpp has voting strength everywhere. 
Let give a hypothetical 2023  voting result  and you do the math.We  do 4 districts. 
Kailahun(Slpp 90% ,Apc 10%)

Pujehun(Slpp 90% ,Apc 10%)

Koinadugu(Apc 63% Slpp 37%)

Kambia(Apc 67% ,Slpp 33%)
This is the exact pattern the 2023 election is going to follow. You will realize that eventhough Apc won Kambia and koinadugu, and Slpp Kailahun and pujehun, the mathematical differentials will not allow Apc to win the election once you start result reconciliation among the 4 districts.
Apc has not done what they are  supposed to do inorder to defeat Slpp.Apc has a strategic planning problem which is, they believe Freetown alone will catapult them to victory. That is a disastrous strategy. 
The problem will start for Apc when you see the registration differential between South east combined on one hand, and the entire North on the other hand.You will find out that South east combined will be almost 400 thousand more that the North which immediately signals a deficit for Apc.The only place where they will be able to overcome that  deficit, is Freetown- Apc will have to win 95% of Freetown inorder to cover that deficit. 
A 35% Slpp victory in Freetown, is an automatic general election defeat for Apc.
Until and unless Apc makes extra strides towards national reach,they will continue losing general elections.

Analytical writing August 31st 2022

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