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This analysis will be tough to believe and accept, most likely due to ignorance or a lack of extensive electoral expertise.

Why would someone who uses a scientific technique to predicting an event's outcome predict that the SLPP will win the presidential election in 2023? Let's ignore the other variables in this analysis and concentrate solely on the country's electoral statistics.

Let us begin by mentioning two electoral events that occurred in Sierra Leone in quick succession.

Despite the needless court cases and the battle for the SLPP flagbearer position in 2018, the party nonetheless won the election by defeating the APC Party twice.

And, before the election, we anticipated the result based on the available Provisional Biometric Voter Registration (BVR) numbers, which revealed that the SLPP had a tight grip on State House.

The overall registration results for 2017 suggested that SLPP had a huge success. Out of a total of 3,128,967 registered voters, 40% were from the SLPP's strongholds in the South and East, and 60% were from the North and West. The proportion did not differ considerably from that of 2012. The number of voters registered in the North fell from 34.4 percent to 31.9 percent, while the numbers in the East and South did not differ much. In 2017, the difference between the South & East and the North was 241,295 in favor of the South & East, compared to 170,917 in 2012.

Assuming APC won all votes in the North and SLPP won all votes in the South and East, APC would need to outnumber SLPP in the West by at least 241,295.

And with the APC's deteriorated popularity in the Western Area, mostly owing to violations of the national constitution, nepotism, poor development, and pervasive corruption, as well as the extinction of the PMDC, it was difficult for the APC to keep its 65 percent control of the Western Area.

Nothing much is going to change in the 2023 election. If any changes occur, they will be either against the SLPP or in favor of the SLPP. But let's concentrate on the 'change against the SLPP,' which is where detractors would like to focus.

According to the present political trend, a large percentage of Sierra Leoneans living in Freetown regard politics in the same manner that they regard football teams; they are unconcerned about the benefits that supporting a political party will bring to them and the country. If nothing changes in the SLPP stronghold, such as the PMDC taking away 10 parliamentary seats from the SLPP, the APC will have to defeat the SLPP in Freetown by at least 270,000 votes.

And the mighty APC defeating the SLPP in Freetown by the aforementioned margin has never happened in the country's electoral history.

You may disagree, but the majority of people in Freetown vote solely on ethnic lines. And the most APC can do in the Western Area with the available favorable ethnic supports, is to secure a vote slightly more than 55%, which doesn't add up to a margin of 250,000 votes in defeat.

During the 2018 election, the SLPP only required 35% of the vote to have a good chance of winning, however after the election, the SLPP received almost 40%....

Check back next time for more information on why and how SLPP will win the 2023 election without a runoff!


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